分析物价趋势的指标选择

Selection of Price Indexes

物价指标的选择和分析涉及宏观形势的研判、宏观政策的设计,以及决策部门与公众的有效沟通问题。本文以图解方法详尽解析了不同物价指数如环比指数、同比指数、累计同比指数等概念及其相互关系,认为不同指数各有利弊,适用不同场合;同时建议在使用同比指数时,可用"基数效应"替代含义不太准确的"翘尾因素"。文章解释了经季节校正的环比年率化指数,阐述了我国这一指数的特点,并认为该指数能够及时反映扣除季节因素的物价水平变化趋势,是人民银行进行经济形势分析、制定和执行货币政策的主要依据;而同比指数和累计同比指数由于受"基数效应"影响较大,时间上也比较滞后,所以应用时需要特别注意。

Selection and analysis of price indexes is important for e situation assessment, macro economic policy design as well as communication among policy agencies and the public. This paper presents a detailed comparison of various types of price indexes, which carry different features and are suitable for different circumstances. It suggests that in the use of the price index （YOY）, the ＂base effect＂ may be able to replace the less accurate ＂carryover effect＂. In particular, this paper deems the seasonally adjusted annualized price index（MOM） a more accurate indicator for the People＇s Bank of China in economic analysis and the monetary policy design and implementation. More attention should be paid in the use of the price index （YOY） and the accumulated price index （YOY） as the indexes suffer from the ＂base impacts＂ and time lag.