人民币汇率弹性与全球经常账户再平衡

Renminbi Exchange Rate Flexibility and Global Current Account Rebalancing

当前我国正在稳步推进人民币汇率形成机制改革,逐步增强人民币汇率弹性,让市场在汇率形成中发挥越来越大的作用。本文运用多国面板VAR模型系数因子化的方法,研究人民币汇率弹性对全球经常账户失衡的影响。研究结果表明:增强人民币汇率弹性不能显著改善全球经常账户失衡,而中国经济增长对改善全球经常账户失衡有积极的贡献,因此发达国家特别是美国经常账户赤字的调整不应以牺牲中国经济增长为代价,人民币汇率形成机制的改革和汇率弹性的增强也应以不牺牲中国经济增长为底线。

China is pushing up the reform of Renminbi exchange rate regime steadily, strengthening exchange rate flexibility gradually and making market play greater role in exchange rate formation mechanism. The author uses coefficient factoring of multi-country VAR model to investigate the influence of Renminbi flexibility on global current account imbalance in the paper. The result shows that strengthening Renminbi flexibility has nothing to do with global current account imbalance and China＇s economic growth plays an active role on improving global imbalance, so reverse of U.S. current account deficit can＇t be accomplished at the sacrifice of China＇s economic growth, and the reform of Renminbi exchange rate regime and strengthening Renminbi exchange rate flexibility can＇t go beyond of the bottom line of China＇s economic growth.