一种基于集散系数修正的乘客OD推算方法——以哈尔滨市某公交线路为例

A Method of Estimating Bus Passengers OD Matrices Based on Distributed Coefficient:A Case Study of A Bus Line in Harbin

单纯以出行距离的概率分布推算公交乘客的OD矩阵,往往会与实际情况产生比较大的误差。本文综合考虑不同站点附近土地利用、换乘等差异对乘客出行分布规律的影响,建立以站点集散系数为修正参量的乘客OD矩阵计算模型。经过哈尔滨市某公交线路的实际调查检验,与单纯概率法相比,站点集散系数修正模型大幅度提高推算准确度,相对误差显著降低,更贴近实际情况。

Bus passengers OD matrices estimated by simple probability distribution of taking the number of stops usually causes relatively large error compared with the actual situation.Considering the specific effects of the discrepancy such as land use,transfer,etc.around different stops on passengers trip distribution law comprehensively,a corrected model of passengers OD matrices based on the collector-distributor coefficient of stops was established.After investigation and verification on a bus line in Harbin as an actual case,the corrected model by collector-distributor coefficient was showed to greatly improve the estimating accuracy,and the relative errors were reduced significantly than simple probability projection method.And the results are more close to the actual situation.