基于粮食生产安全的白银市耕地需求量预测研究

Forecasting of arable land demand based on security of grain production in Baiyin City

从区域粮食安全角度出发,以白银市1997～2005年社会经济相关数据、耕地变更调查数据为基础,首先,预测未来人口发展规模,确定人均粮食需求标准,然后,从粮食需求量入手,综合考虑粮食自给率、区域粮食生产潜力、复种指数、粮作比等因素,制定了不同自给率、不同人均粮食需求标准情况下的不同预测方案,得出白银市2020年基于粮食安全生产的耕地需求量变化为311 250hm2～374 288hm2。

Grain is the critical materials for national economy and the people＇s livelihood. Food production se- curity is an important part of the national security strategy. The quantity of arable cropland area is the basis of food production security. The paper used the social-economical data and cropland changing data from 1997 to 2005 in Baiyin City,central area in Gansu Province ,to forecast the demand of arable land. in 2020. The forecast indicated that the arable land,from 311,250 ha to 374,288 ha,can meet the demand of 2020. The results might be useful by giving some suggestions about the regional arable planning, regional land- use policy. regional food security in land protection, land-use