山东可利用降水量时空分布特征及其对气候变暖的响应

THE SPATIAL-TEMPORAL DISTRIBUTION OF UTILIZABLE PRECIPITATION OVER SHANDONG PROVINCE AND ITS RESPONSE TO GLOBAL WARMING

利用山东省31个气象观测站1961—2008年的月平均气温和月降水量资料，依据高桥浩一郎的路面蒸散发经验公式和水量平衡关系计算得到山东可利用降水量，分析了山东可利用降水量的时空分布特征及其对气候变暖的响应．结果表明：1）近48年来，山东年及四季可利用降水量总体上均呈减少的趋势，特别地，年可利用降水量减少显著．2）山东可利用降水量除冬季年代际变化不明显，年际变化明显外，其余季节和年可利用降水量都存在明显的年代际及年际变化．3）从区域分布来看，山东年及四季平均可利用降水量基本上呈现由西北向东南逐渐增加的分布趋势；全省大部地区年及四季可利用降水量呈减少趋势，特别地，鲁西北和半岛部分地区年和夏季可利用降水量减少显著．4）在全球气候偏冷期，山东四季及年可利用降水量均偏多；在全球气候偏暖期，除冬季略偏多外，其他季节和年可利用降水量均偏少．

Based on the monthly precipitation and temperature data observed at 31 stations over Shandong province from 1961 to 2008, the utilizable precipitation was calculated by Takahashi＇ s evaporation equation and the relationship of water balance. The spatial - temporal distribution of utilizable precipitation over Shandong province and its response to global warming were analyzed. The results showed the following： 1 ） The seasonal and annual utilizable precipitation all decreased in the recent 48 years, especially the decreasing trend of annual utilizable precipitation was statistically significant at the 0.10 level . 2） The seasonal and annual utilizable precipitation all showed distinctively interannual and interdecadal oscillations except the winter utilizable precipitation which only displayed interannual variations. 3 ） Regionally, the seasonal and annual mean utilizable precipitation over Shandong province increased gradually from Northwest to Southeast The seasonal and annual utilizable precipitation over most areas of Shandong province displayed decreasing tendency. Particularly, the summer and annual utilizable precipitation over Northwest Shandong and some areas of Shandong Peninsula decreased obviously, which was statistically significant at the 0.10 level. 4） When the globe climate was colder, the seasonal and annual utilizable precipitation over Shandong province was all more. When the globe climate was warmer, the seasonal and annual utilizable precipitation was less except the winter utilizable precipitation was a little more.