基于ARIMA模型的全国能源消费的短期预测

Short-term Prediction of National Energy Consumption Based on the ARIMA Model

目的:根据全国能源历史消费数据来预测未来能源消费,为科学制定能源规划及经济发展战略提供建议。方法:选取1953-2011年的全国能源消费总量数据,运用ARIMA(1,1,3)模型预测未来4年的能源消费量。结果:2012年至2015年的能源消费量依次为354948.40、371466.8、392505.06、413849.93(万吨标准煤)。结论:预测结果表明国家制定的能源消费总量控制目标比较合理。但是我国仍需要更多的措施来实现这一目标。

Objective： According to the past data, we aimed to predict national energy consumption in the following several years. Then we provided some advices on setting scientific energy planning and economic development strategy. Method： National energy consumption data from 1953 to 2011 were used to to predict the future energy consumption for 4 years based on ARIMA（1, 1, 3） model. Result： The energy consumption from 2012 to 2015 is 354948.40,371466.8,392505.06,413849.93 （Ten thousand tons of standard coal）. Conclusion： Our result present that national energy consumption amount control target is reasonable, but our government should take more measures to achieve this goal.