2012年12月至2013年2月T639、ECMWF及日本模式中期预报性能检验

The Performance Verification of Medium-Range Forecast for T639,ECMWF and Japan Models from December 2012 to February 2013

对2012年12月至2013年2月T639、ECMWF(文中简称EC)及日本(文中简称JP)数值模式的中期预报产品进行了对比分析和检验。结果表明:三家模式对亚洲中高纬环流形势的调整和演变具有一定的预报性能,但都存在随时效增长的系统性偏差,比较而言,EC模式的预报最接近实况。对于850 hPa温度场,EC模式在北方地区的预报误差小于JP模式,而在南方地区则相反,T639模式在南方和北方的预报误差都是最大的。对于东北地区较弱的冷空气过程,日本模式的预报表现最优,T639模式对冷高压的强度预报明显偏弱,且位置明显偏南,EC模式的预报也较零场略偏弱,位置略偏北。

The medium-range forecast products of the numberical models T639, ECMWF and Japan from December 2012 to February 2013 are compared and verified. The results show that the three models have good performance in predicting the variation and adjustment of atmospheric circulation over Asian middle and high latitude areas, but all of them have systemic errors increasing with forecasting time. Compara- tively speaking, EC model has better performance than T639 and JP models. For the temperature field at 850 hPa, EC model has better performance than JP in the north of China but in the South, JP plays better than EC. Comparatively, the forecast errors of T639 model are the biggest no matter in the south or the north of China. For the process of weak cold airs in the Northeast of China, JP model has the best per- formance, T639 model produces obvious errors in predicting the intensity and position of cold high, and EC also creates some small errors in intensity and position forecasts.