中国人口老龄化水平测度与空间关联研究

Research on the Measure of Chinese Population Aging Level and Spatial Correlation

人口老龄化水平是关系到我国经济社会和谐发展的重要问题。基于国际通用标准,采用多项指标对人口老龄化水平进行综合测度,在此基础上,采用空间自相关分析方法,研究人口老龄化水平的空间关联规律。结果表明:自1997年以来,我国人口老龄化水平逐年升高,各省份差异明显,且差异有逐渐增大的趋势;人口老龄化水平的全局空间依赖性并不高,但是局部空间集聚规律却很明显,表现为人口老龄化水平高—高分布区由东部向中西部集中,人口老龄化水平低—低分布区向西南及东北北部移动,而高—低分布与低—高分布的地区则向我国东南部及西部部分地区扩散。

Population aging is a very important issue which affects the harmonious development of China＇ s e- conomy and society. Based on some internationally accepted standards, some indexes are employed in this paper to comprehensively measure the population aging level. Spatial autocorrelation analysis is used to study the spatial cor- relation pattern of the level of population aging. The results show that： Since 1997, China＇ s population aging level increases year by year, and it remarkably varies from province to province. The difference showed a trend of wide- ning. The overall spatial dependency of population aging level is not high, but the local spatial clustering pattern is obvious. It is demonstrated that population aging of high-high distribution in the eastern areas tend to concentrate at the center and western areas, while low-low distribution in the western areas are shifting to the southwest and the northern of northeast. High-low distribution and low-high distribution areas are spreading to the southeast of China and parts of the western areas.