吉林省农村信贷效率的变参数分析及政策效应评价

Evaluation on Policy Effect of Rural Credit Efficiency in Jilin Province Based on Variable Parameter Analysis

以柯布和道格拉斯提出的经典C-D生产函数模型为基础,利用1978-2010年吉林省农村信贷等相关统计数据和状态空间模型,结合政策变动分析了吉林省农村信贷效率的变动情况。结果表明,吉林省农村信贷效率是一直在变化的;吉林省农村信贷效率的变动受政策变动影响较大,政策推动农村金融资源供给增加时,信贷效率就会得到提高。在此基础上对当前农村信贷政策进行了评价,并提出政策建议。

Based on the classic C-D production function model proposed by Cobb and Douglas, using related statistical data of Jilin rural credit from 1978 to 2010 and the state space model, combined with the policy change situation to analyze the efficiency changes of Jilin rural credit. The results show that the rural credit efficiency of Jilin is changing all the time, greatly influenced by the policy change. The credit efficiency will be improved when the policy promote the rural financial re- sources to increase the supply. On this basis, the current rural credit policy was evaluated and some relevant policy sugges- tions were put forward.