电子商务模式模仿者与创新者竞争动态研究——当当网和亚马逊中国竞争演变分析

A Study on Dynamic Competition Between the Imitator and the Innovator in the E-Commerce Model

利用竞争扩散模型Lotka-Volterra分析了我国书籍网购市场中当当网和亚马逊中国这两个主要竞争者的市场竞争动态。从模型的分析效果来看,Lotka-Volterra模型在分析竞争性市场中更具有适用性,并且比Logistic模型具有更好的拟合度;从分析结果来看,当当网在独占性市场的发展动力大于亚马逊中国,同时当当网在模仿创新过程中获得了一定的收益;但当当网和亚马逊中国的竞争关系为被捕食者—捕食者关系,并且当当网的进攻优势只是亚马逊中国反击能力的一半;当当网和亚马逊中国在近几年中将不会出现平衡点,两者差距将逐渐增大。

This paper based on Lotka-Volterra model analyses the dynamic competition in China＇s book E-Business market. From the analsis effect, Lotka-Volterra model has the applicability in competition market and is better fit than the Logistic model, from the analsis result Dangdang holds a more powerful devolop in the monopolistic mar- ket, at the same time, it benefits from the imitation innovation, however, the competition relationship between Dan- gdang and Amazon.cn is predator-prey. The attacker＇s advantage of Dangdang is nearly half of the defender＇s coun- terattack of Amazon.cn, Dangdang and Amazon.cn will not have the equilibrium in recent year, and the gap be- comes bigger. This conclusion indicates the E-Business model innovation is more and more important for Dang- dang and every E-Business enterprises.