摘要
利用气候模式产品、NCEP/NCAR再分析500hPa旬平均高度资料和河北省冬小麦种植区各测站的逐旬降水、气温资料。运用相似释用技术,研制了冬小麦返青—拔节、拔节—抽穗、抽穗—乳熟、乳熟—成熟4个生育期间逐旬气温、降水预测方法,建立了冬小麦各生育期干旱指标预测模型,并在预测业务中应用。预测检验结果表明,用模式产品解释应用方法制作逐旬气候预测是可行的。
A new interpretation method for making 10-day average temperature and precipitation prediction during different wheat growth stages is developed based on the predictions of a climate model,the NCEP/NCAP reanalysis data,and in-site observations of temperature and precipitation.Meanwhile,a new drought prediction model is devised,which has been put into operation.The operational use shows that this model is practicable.
出处
《气象科技》
2013年第2期389-393,共5页
Meteorological Science and Technology
基金
河北省科技厅重点研究项目"河北省小麦干旱灾害预估技术研究"(10227108D)资助
关键词
释用方法
小麦生育期
旬气候预测
interpretation method,growing season,wheat,climate prediction
