舰船装备全寿命周期费用估算方法研究

Estimate Method for Warship Equipment LCC

论文针对我国舰船新装备多、影响因素不明确且数据不足的问题,建立费用分解结构模式(CBS),分析各费用单元。通过对比神经网络法、灰色预测法、支持向量机等方法的自身特点,分析其对舰船装备全寿命周期费用估算的有效性,并论述了类比法、工程法、作业成本法等方法如何在估算过程中配合使用,列出了全寿命周期各阶段的估算关系式,得到了对舰船装备全寿命周期费用估算行之有效的方法。研究结论为相关部门对舰船装备全寿命周期费用分析提供了理论依据。

Against the main problem of a great range of new warship equipments and lacking value data for reference of the estimation, the CBS is founded and cost elements are analyzed. Based on comparing different estimation methods, including regression analysis and its im- provement, artificial neural network, grey system theory and support vector machines, this paper discusses their applicability for warship e- quipment. The article also introduces how to use current estimate method of LCC in conjunction with each other and analyzes LCC estimation modeling of warship equipment. The available operation procedure for warship equipment is presented. This conclusion provides theoretical foundation for the LCC of warship equipment.