泰国和马来西亚汇率制度发展新特征

The New Characteristics of the Exchange Rate regimes Development of Thailand and Malaysia

本文通过分阶段考察美元在泰铢和林吉特隐性货币篮子中权重的变化、人民币与两国货币的联动性和两国外汇市场压力,发现两国汇率制度在亚洲金融危机后,特别是2005年7月马来西亚汇改后有了新特征。美元对两国货币的影响减弱,但受到外部冲击时,两国货币选择高频钉住美元;人民币与泰铢和林吉特的联动性增加,对两者的影响增大;相对于"浮动恐惧",后危机时期两国货币更具有"升值恐惧"。

This paper analyzes the weight of US dollar in the implicit basket of currencies of Thai Baht and Lingit , the features of the exchange rate co-movements among RMB and the two countries＇ currencies and the exchange market pressure of the two countries in every period. It comes to a conclusion that after the Asian financial crisis, especially after Malaysian exchange rate reform in July, 2005, exchange rate regime of the two countries have new characteristics. The influence of US dollar on the two countries＇ currencies is weakening, but the two countries＇ currencies choose pegging to US dollar when they are influenced by external shocks; The Influence of RMB on the two countries＇ currencies is increasing while their correlation is strengthening; The two countries＇ currencies have more ＂fear of appreciation＂ than ＂fear of floating＂ after the Asian financial crisis.