Hurst指数分析地震震级趋势

Application of Hurst exponent to analyzing the trend of earthquake magnitude

应用Hurst指数及分形维D、相关系数C和V统计量图形以及散点图和拟合趋势线方法,分析全球7.0级以上地震震级序列,发现该序列是分形布朗运动,均值回复过程(粉红噪声,反持续性,逆状态持续性),且具频繁的逆转突变性或易变性,长期情况下其震级呈现极微弱的下降趋势。可供地震研究和安全研究工作参考。

The sequence of global earthquake magnitude of 7. 0 and more than 7. 0 is analyzed by the methods of Hurst exponent, fractal dimension D, correlation coefficient （2 and V-statistics and the scatter diagram and fitting trend line. The results show that this sequence is a fractional Brownian motion, mean reversion process （pink noise, anti-persistence and persistence against the state）, and with a frequent reversal mutation or volatility. In the long case, the magnitude shows a very slight downward trend. Conclusion of the study can provide reference for seismic studies and safety studies.