太湖流域粮食生产格局变化及影响机制研究

Study on the Temperal-Spatial Structure and Influence Mechanism of Grain Production in Taihu Lake Basin

太湖流域是中国传统粮食高产区,其粮食生产演变对我国粮食安全意义重大。该文从宏观视角探讨了该区1985-2010年27个县域粮食生产的时空变化及其影响机制,结果表明:该区粮食产量波动较大,但总体呈下降趋势,历经波动发展-急剧减少-稳步增长三阶段,粮食总产变异系数和波动系数均超过全国平均水平,区域粮食安全风险较大;空间分布上高产区不断减少,低产区范围扩大,粮食生产重心移动与人口重心移动方向相反,粮食供需矛盾加大。耕地数量、质量、结构和方式等的变化是驱动粮食生产时空变化的重要机制,其中不同质量水平的耕地数量和耕地利用方式变化是影响粮食生产的重要因子。落实差别化耕地保护政策、避免耕地资源隐性流失、转变耕地利用方式等具有重要现实意义。

Taihu Lake Basin is China＇s traditional food division with high grain yield. The variation of grain production in Taihu Lake Basin is of great significance to grain security of China. From a macro perspective, the temporal-spatial character and varia- tion mechanism of grain production in Taihu Lake Basin is revealed by applying mathematical statistics and GIS with 27 counties as study units from 1985 to 2010. The results are as follows：Firstly, the grain production showed instability and a tendency to decline,and it can be divided into three stages which were fluctuant development-sharp drop-stead growth. The fluctuations co- efficient and the total grain yield variation is above the national average, so there will be a high-risk of food security. Secondly, it also showed significant regional differences. On the whole, it presented a decline in the area with high grain yield and a expan- sion in the area with low grain yield. The tendency of gravity centers of grain production and population was opposite, so the supply and demand conflict of food is intensifying. Finally, the variation of quantity, quality, structure and pattern of cultivated land use are the mechanism of grain production change and the quality and pattern are the main influence factors. In view of the analysis results, it has important significance to avoid the recessive loss of cultivated land, alter the pattern of land use, and bring forward some research measures for ensuring food security according to the actual situation in different regions.