基于偏移-份额模型的中国制造业空间格局变化解释

Explanation of Locational Changes of Chinese Manufacturing Industries Based on Shift-Share Model

外部环境变化促使中国制造业空间格局不断演变。基于中国工业企业数据库,运用改进的偏移-份额模型,将1998-2008年中国地级单元的制造业增长量分解为国家分量、省域分量、行业分量和区位分量。国家的经济发展水平和宏观政策推动产业增长,促进产业转移;省域政策和邻域的制造业布局影响本地产业结构;行业的要素密集类型和垄断水平导致空间布局差异;区域经济、区域政策以及城市群内部的联系影响制造业空间格局变化。进一步选取代表性行业对偏移-份额模型中的行业分量和区位分量的组合情况进行研究,认为行业特征与区位特征需要相互匹配才能形成合理的城市产业结构,进而优化产业空间布局。

The spatial structure of Chinese manufacturing industries has deeply changed in recent years. Based on Annual Survey of Industrial Firms （ASIF） from 1998 to 2008, this study systematically shows and decomposes the increase of manufacturing industries in every prefectural level and above city in China with the Shift-share Model and explains the increase by the National Effect, the Provincial Effect, the Structural Effect and the Competitive Effect. The state and provinces provide macro-economic environment and policies for industries increase. However, the National Effect is much more influential than the Provincial Effect. Industry features, including factor-intensive type and particular market structure （i. e. monopoly）, affect location of dif- ferent industries. On the prefectura level, geographic features, location and indigenous policies will be influential on industries location. The Structural Effect and the Competitive Effect both contribute to locational advantages, which influence agglomeration varied by industries.