中国的碳排放与经济增长满足EKC假说吗?——基于半参数面板数据模型的检验

Does the Relationship between Economic Development and CO_2 Emissions in China Follow EKC Hypothesis? A Test Based on Semiparametric Panel Data Model

本文以中国28个地区1995～2009年的面板数据,在估算28个地区CO2排放量的基础上,采用灵活稳健的半参数面板数据模型对我国CO2排放的环境库兹涅茨曲线的存在性进行了实证研究。结果表明:中国及其东部存在CO2排放的环境库兹涅茨曲线并且转折点为0.76千元人均实际GDP,但是中部、西部不存在该曲线;中部正趋近于人均CO2排放的转折点,西部离该转折点还有较大差距;第二产业占GDP比重对CO2排放具有正向的影响。

In this paper, we estimate the emissions of carbon dioxide in 28 China＇ s provinces based on their panel data during 1995 -2009, and make an empirical study on the existence of Environmental Kuznets Curve of carbon dioxide emissions in China by using the flexible and robust semiparametric panel data model. The results show that China and its eastern areas have the Environmental Kuznets Curve for per capita carbon emissions, which knee point is on 0.76 thousand RMB per capita real GDP. But the Environmental Kuznets Curve does not exist in the central and western region. The central of China is closing to the knee point, however the west still is far away that. The production value ratio of the second industry to GDP has a positive effect to the emissions of carbon dioxide.