安徽省内人口迁移的空间特征及其影响因素

The Spatial Patterns of Intra-provincial Migration and Their Determinants in Anhui Province

引入迁移选择指数概念,利用安徽省人口、社会和经济发展数据,计算了2007—2010年安徽省各地级市的人口综合迁入指数、人口综合迁出指数、人口净迁移指数和各地级市间的人口迁移选择指数,并建立了关于人口净迁移指数的多元线性回归模型;着重从迁出地、迁入地和迁移流的视角,揭示了安徽省省内人口迁移的空间规律及其影响因子。研究表明:"环省会迁出圈"、"皖南迁出区"是主要的迁出地;"省会迁入区"、"马芜铜迁入区"和"两淮迁入区"是主要的迁入地。省会合肥和"马芜铜"沿江城市带是人口迁移强度最大的区域:在空间上,它们呈现出"点—轴"形态;省会合肥的辐射范围覆盖全省,而"马芜铜"沿江城市带是安徽南部地区最主要的人口迁入地;各主要迁入地之间的人口对流较弱。劳动力在三次产业间的分布、城镇从业人员比重,以及城市公园数量是安徽省省内人口迁移的重要"推—拉"因子。

Introducing the concept of migration preference index and using population and socioeconomic statistics, this paper first calculates the comprehensive in-migration indexes, the comprehensive out-migration indexes, the net migration indexes, and the migration preference indexes for all prefecture-level municipalities of Anhui Province in the period of 2007 to 2010, and then conducts a multiple linear regression to model the net migration indexes, to reveal the spatial patterns and their determinants of intra-provincial migration in Anhui Province, from the perspectives of source and destination areas and migration flows. The results show that ＂the out-migration ring area surrounding the capital＂ and ＂the Southern Anhui out-migration region＂ are the main source areas, and that ＂the capital city in-migration region＂, ＂the ~ ,, ~ ~ ~ ~ ,7 Maanshan-Wuhu-Tonglmg m-m^gratxon regmn, and ＂the Huainan-Huaibei m-nugratlon regmn are the main destination areas. The capital city Hefei and ＂the Maanshan-Wuhu-Tongling city strip＂ along the Yangtze River are the areas with the highest migration intensity. Their spatial configuration is in the form of ＂point-axis＂, with capital city Hefei serving as a main destination area for migrants from the whole province, and ＂the Maanshan-Wuhu-Tongling city strip＂ along the Yangtze River as a main destination area for migrants from the southern part of the province. The migration intensities between the main destination areas are relatively weak. The results of the regression analysis suggest that the distribution of the labor force among the first, secondary and tertiary sectors, the proportion of the labor force in employment in urban areas, and the number of urban parks, are the main determinants of intra-provincial migration within Anhui Province.