高铁与民航的竞争博弈及其空间效应——以京沪高铁为例

Competition Game of High-speed Rail and Civil Aviation and Its Spatial Effect—A Case Study of Beijing-Shanghai High-speed Rail

高铁的发展会对航空运输产生严重冲击,在我国高速铁路快速发展的背景下,研究高速铁路与民航的竞争关系具有重要的意义。综合考虑经济、快速、舒适、便捷和安全等指标效益,运用高铁和航空运输市场的分担模型,计算在不同运输距离下高铁和航空的运输市场占有率情况,结果表明,500—900km是高铁和航空竞争博弈的显著距离,而692km是高铁和航空运输市场的分界距离。以京沪高铁为例,通过分析城市机场规模和位置关系,得出高铁与航空竞争关系的一般规律:高铁对小城市机场的影响要大于对大城市机场的影响,对中间地带城市机场的影响要大于对两端城市机场的影响。在此基础上,通过对高铁与民航竞争引致的空间效应的定量和定性分析,认为竞争的结果必然会导致区域空间结构和区域发展优势发生改变,使区域经济发展更趋均衡。

The development of high-speed rail had a serious impact on air transport. It is great significant to research the competitive relationship between high-speed railway and civil aviation on the background of rapid development of high-speed railway in China. By considered the indicators effectiveness of economic, speed, comfortable, convenient and safety, this paper used market share model to calculate the market share situation of high-speed rail and air transport in different transport distance. The results showed that 500-900km is a significant distance for the competition game of high-speed rail and air transport, and 692km is a market boundary distance for high-speed rail and air transport. Taking Beijing-Shanghai high-speed rail for example, by analyzing the relationship ot; airports＇ size and location, we can get the general competition rules between high-speed rail and air transport： high-speed rail＇ s impact on small city airport is greater than the large city airport, and the impact on the city airport of middle zone is greater than the both ends. On this basis, this paper analyzed the spatial effect caused by competition of high-speed railway and civil aviation for quantitative and qualitative. The conclusion showed that competition between high-speed railway and civil aviation will lead regional spatial structure and regional development advantages to change inevitably, and make regional economic development more balanced.