湘西旅游产业发展规模预测研究

Predict and Achieve the Development Scale of Xiangxi Tourism Industry

基于主成份回归和卡尔曼滤波方法与原理,对湘西旅游业的发展规模进行分析与预测。结果表明未来湘西旅游业的发展前景较好,产业规模在一定时期内其趋势呈"J"型曲线增长。研究认为,政府必须继续保持导向性政策,加大对景点基础服务和景区交通设施投资,降低民间资本准入门槛,大胆创新,鼓励与引进各种形式的融资模式及加强人文景观与自然景观宣传力度等,以此促进湘西旅游产业长足发展。

The development scale and prediction of Xiangxi tourism industry is the foundation of the development planning and policy of Xiangxi tourism industry in the future. This article based on principal component regression and Kalman filtering method and principle, through making analysis and prediction about the development scale of Xiangxi tourism industry, comes to a conclusion that the development prospect and trend of Xiangxi tourism industry is very considerable, whose overall scale presents growth trend that is like ＂J＂. Therefore, The government must continue to remain the leading policy, intensify basic services in scenic spots and transportation infrastructure investment in scenic region, lower admittance threshold for folk capital, boldly innovate, encourage and introduce various forms of financing model, strengthen the publicity for the human landscape and natural landscape, and so on, promoting Xiangxi tourism industry in progress.