我国省际可持续发展能力的外溢效应识别

Identification of Spillover Effects of China's Provincial Sustainable Development

可持续发展是应对当前严峻环境经济社会问题的必由之路。本文使用可持续发展能力指数来度量我国省区的可持续发展能力。1998—2008年,我国的生存、发展、社会和智力支持系统指数呈增长态势,但环境支持系统指数却略微下降。在此基础上,建立空间面板模型验证省际可持续发展能力的外溢效应,实证结果表明,生存、发展、环境与社会支持系统指数都存在显著正的外溢效应,而智力支持系统指数则呈显著负的外溢效应。正的外溢效应,在空间上表现为相近水平的省区集聚在一起;在政策举措上表现为省区的可持续发展行为相互模仿。负的外溢效应的表现则刚好相反,而这些现象与我国当前的官员考核机制及地区的发展水平紧密相连。

Sustainable development is the only way to solve the current difficult economic, environ- mental and social problems. This paper uses the sustainable development index to measure the capaci-ty for sustainable development of China＇s provinces. From 1998 to 2008, the survival, development, social and intelligence support system indices show a rising trend. But the environmental support sys-tem index decreases slightly. On this basis, we construct a space panel model to identify spillover effect of China＇s provincial sustainable development. The result shows that the survival, development, environmental and social support system indices have a significant positive spillover effect, while the intelligence support system index shows a negative spillover effect. The positive spillover effect means that provinces at the similar level of performance gather together in space, and they have imitated each other in sustainable development initiatives. The negative spiliover effect shows an opposite picture. These phenomena are closely linked with the level of development in different regions and with the cur-rent mechanism for assessing the performance of government officials.