中国能源矿产开采路径与最优开采路径相悖原因

The Reason Why Actual Mining of Energy Mines Runs Counter to Optimal Exploitation Paths in China

中国能源矿产开采量逐年递增,与可耗竭资源最优配置理论模型中的最优开采路径相背离。为探究理论与实际相悖的原因,运用逆向思维的方式,从中国实际情况出发,寻求能源矿产供给的影响因素,试图得出理论最优开采路径与中国实际开采路径相悖的原因,并运用计量经济学的方法,进行实证检验。研究结果显示:中国能源矿产供给与价格指数相关性不显著与可耗竭资源最优配置理论假设相悖;中国能源矿产供给尚未到达峰值的事实与可耗竭资源最优配置目标相悖。

The exploitation quantity of China＇s fossil energy is increasing annually,which deviates from the optimal extraction path of the optimal exhaustible resource allocation model.Reverse way of thinking is applied in this paper,proceeding from China＇s actual situation and searching for influencing factors of fossil energy supply,in order to probe into the cause for the conflicts of the theory and China＇s realties.By using econometric method,the following conclusions have been drawn from the empirical studies：（1）The insignificant correlation between China＇ fossil energy supply and price index is incompatible with the hypothesis of optimal exhaustible resource allocation theory.（2）The fact that the supply of fossil energy has yet to peak is incompatible with the goal of the optimal allocation in exhaustible resource.