摘要
This paper, using multiple-Hubbert model, forecasts oil production trend of Iran with special focus on Iran＇s insufficient investment for developing recently discovered oilfields and overproduction from mature oilfields. This is mostly due to Iran＇s political and technical limitations to carry out oil and gas projects. The trend of Iran＇s oil production has been forecasted based on a multi-cycle modified Hubbert. Three different scenarios have been assumed. In the first scenario, it is assumed that Iran does not have any limitations to carry out oil and gas projects and develop its oilfields. International sanctions and lack of foreign investment have been taken into account in the second scenario. Overproduction from currently producing mature oilfields and its effect on production trend is investigated in the third scenario. The most important parameter to forecast oil production trend is URR （ultimate recoverable resource）. URR of Iran has been estimated by parabolic fractal curve. Here, based on the plotted parabolic fractal curve for the oil fields, amount of URR of Iran has been calculated that is around 200 Gb. First scenario has two peaks while the second and third scenarios have three peaks. All of the scenarios have forecasted Iran＇s first peak in 1975 at annual production rate of 2 Gb/Year. Based on first scenario, Iran＇s second peak will occur in 2029 at 2.334 Gb/Year. Second scenario has forecasted Iran＇s second and third peaks in 2011 at 1.575 Gb/Year and in 2064 at 2.205 Gb/Year respectively, and third scenario＇s peaks have been estimated to occur in 2011 at 1.573 Gb/Year and in 2061 at 2.030 Gb/Year.
