山东小麦生产风险预警模型

Early Warning Model of Wheat Production Risk in Shandong Province

综合采用小麦生长发育过程中的气候风险因子,进行小麦生长灾害风险分析。结果表明:不同生态区小麦的主要灾害类型不同,其中,干热风灾害是各生态区主要的生产风险灾害,小麦产量最终形成受到干热风灾害的威胁最大;建立了生产风险灾害预警模型,不同生态区条件下模型的风险因子不同,模型的显著性也有差异。多因子回归预警模型为风险因子判定和产量预警提供了数据和理论支持。

Some climatic risk factors were adopted to analyze the possible disaster risk in wheat growth and development. The results showed that the main disaster types were different in different ecoregions. Dry and hot wind was the main production risk disaster in each ecoregion, which influenced the wheat yield forma- tion mostly. The warning model of production risks was established; but due to the different risk factors in dif- ferent ecoregions, the significanee of the model was different. The warning model based on multifactor regres- sion offered data and theoretical supports for risk factor decision and oroduction e, arlv warnin~