人民币汇率波动背景下的“钟摆效应”探析

A studV on pendulum effect in RMB exchange rate fluctuations

2012年以来，人民币对美元汇率继续呈现双向波动趋势，升值和贬值预期交替出现。企业等市场主体根据人民币汇率预期变动，灵活调整外币资产负债配置结构，使财务运作呈现较为明显的“钟摆效应”。“钟摆效应”的出现，反映了国内市场主体对汇率风险意识的增强，也影响到外汇资产在央行和市场主体间配置的变动，增加跨境资金流动的波动性。为更好地适应国内市场主体外币资产配置需求的变化，文章提出相关政策建议。

Since 2012, USD/CNY exchange rate kept two-way fluctuations, and the expectations on RMB appreciation and depreciation occurred alternatively. Based on the changes of RMB exchange rate expectations, enterprises and other market participants flexibly adjust their foreign currency assets and liabilities, thus causing relatively apparent ＂pendulum effect＂ in their financial management. The ＂pendulum effect＂ reflects an enhanced risk sense to exchange rate changes among domestic market participants, and also has influences on FX asset allocation between the central bank and market participants, and increases the fluctuations of cross-border cash flow. This article proposes some policy suggestions for better adapting to the changes of domestic market participants＇ FX asset allocation needs.