湖南省农村水资源保护现状评价与趋势预测

Evaluation of Current Status and Trend Prediction of Rural Water Resources Protection in Hunan Province

随着农村城镇化进程的加快和经济的持续较快发展,农村水资源保护问题日益凸显。通过建立湖南省农村水资源保护评价指标体系,采用基于最优组合权重的灰色关联度分析法,对湖南省2010年农村水资源保护现状进行评价,结果表明:植被覆盖率、政策规划完备和执行度、农田有效灌溉比例、每公顷化肥施用量4个评价指标与湖南省农村水资源保护现状关联程度最大。最后,采用GM(1.1)改进模型预测了指标体系中10个主要评价指标在2011年-2016年的变化趋势,模型检验参数到达合格等级,预测结果可以为农村水资源保护提供决策依据。

With the increasing of urbanization and the rapid economic development, the rural water resources protection has more and more problems. In this paper,an evaluation index system of rural water resources protection in Hunan province was devel- oped using the grey correlation degree approach based on the optimal combination weight method,and this evaluation index sys- tem was applied to investigate the status of rural water resources protection in Hunan province in 2010. The results showed that four indexes are the most relevant factors with rural water resources protection, including the vegetation coverage, the complete ness and implementation of policies, the effective irrigation rate, and the average fertilizer application rate per hectare. Finally, the improved model of GM（I,1） was used to predicate the variation trends of ten main indexes from 2011 to 2016. Model test parameters reached the qualified levels. The predicted results can offer decision-making references for rural water resources pro- tection.