中国—东盟自由贸易区投资效应研究

Study on Investment Effect of China-ASEAN Free Trade Area

中国—东盟自贸区建设已经步入到"深度一体化"阶段,深入分析及度量中国—东盟自贸区的投资效应对此有着较好的指导意义。文章在空间经济学理论分析基础上,运用倍差法对中国—东盟自贸区生产转移效应进行了有效的计量估计。实证结果说明虽然中国—东盟自贸区成立对成员国FDI流入有着明显的正向促进作用,但力度较小,远远低于生产规模及消费规模等更为直接的因素,自贸区内部潜力还有待进一步挖掘。并在进一步现实分析的基础上,提出了政策建议。

It is significant to empirical measure the investment effect of China-ASEAN Free Trade Area, since it steps into the deep integration stage.Based on spatial economics theory and differences-in-differences methods, this paper empirically estimates the investment effect of China-ASEAN Free Trade Area.The empirical results show that although China-ASEAN Free Trade Area plays a clear positive role in promoting FDI inflows onto its member, but the effect is far less than the direct factors such as production and consumption scales, which means China-ASEAN Free Trade Area still needs further building. And the paper puts forward some policy suggestions based on the reality analysis.