风险感知与保险需求波动——基于最优保险模型的理论证明

Risk Perception and the Fluctuation of Insurance Demand——A Theoretical Proof Based on the Optimal Insurance Model

肇始于心理学领域的风险感知研究逐渐在经济学领域帮助人们窥探决策黑箱的运作机理。恐惧因子和位置因子作为风险感知的两个维度,决定了人们对风险的感知水平。通过风险感知的维度、情绪对风险感知的影响以及风险感知对风险决策影响的文献梳理后,构建了巨灾冲击后风险感知影响保险需求的路径。在期望效用理论下通过构建效用最大化模型验证了收入财富等变量影响保险需求,当个体的风险感知发生变化将会导致保险需求的变化,即风险感知水平上升将导致对某一风险的主观概率提升,进而引起了最优保险需求的增加。在非期望效用理论框架下,通过前景理论同样证明了当个体受到强烈的情绪和感知冲击后,主观概率的增加将导致保险需求的增加。

The risk perception theory initiated in psychology is now playing an important role in exploring the mechanism of decision making in the field of economics. The fear factor and unknown factor determine the perception of risk on two dimensions. After the review of risk perception literature about dimensions of risk perception, how emotion affecting the perception, and how risk perception affecting decision making, the authors built the propagation path of risk perception influencing the demand of insurance after catastrophes. The authors proved the as- sumption that ascension of risk perception would result in insurance demand increase in addition to the factors of in- come and wealth through establishing a utility maximization model according to the Expected utility theory. In other words, with the rising of the risk perception level, the subjective probability of certain risk would go up accordingly, which would lead to the increase of optimal insurance demands. On the other hand, under the framework of prospect theory, the authors also proved that when strongly impacted emotionally and perceptionally, the rise of subjective probability would lead to the increase of insurance demands.