由气候变化看天山西部流域水文特性的改变及水文趋势预测

Hydrological Characteristics Change and Forecast of Hydrological Trend about Western Watershed along Tian Mountain from Climate Change

以天山西部流域为代表,分析了47 a来气温、降水和河流径流的变化趋势,论述了天山西北地区河流在气候变化条件下的水文异常现象与水文特性改变的事实,并对未来的水文变化趋势进行了初步探讨和预测分析。分析结果显示:从气候变化的角度认识河流水文特性的改变,并以此为基础来分析水文趋势可能发生的变化,是很有必要的。

The western watershed of the Tian Mountain was taken as a representative to analyze the changing trend of tempera- ture, precipitation and river runoff in 47 years, to discuss the facts about abnormal hydrological phenomena and hydrological characteristics change of the rivers in the northwestern area of the Tian Mountain affected by the changing climate and to pre- liminarily expound, forecast and analyze the tendency of hydrological change in the future. The results show that it is necessary to recognize the change of river hydrologic characteristics and the hydrologic tendency that may change possibly in the future from the climate change.