我国城乡学前教育发展资源需求探析——基于学龄人口预测

Study on the Demand of Rural-urban Early Childhood Education Resources in China——Based on the Prediction of School-aged Population

以2009年人口数据作为基点,对我国2013—2020年城乡学前教育阶段学龄人口数进行预测。研究发现,目前城市学龄人口少于农村学龄人口,但在2013—2020年期间,城市学龄人口数将逐年上升,农村学龄人口则将逐年下降,到2020年两者基本接近。为解决城乡学前教育资源需求问题,需采取多种办园模式稳定教师队伍规范幼儿园布局调整做好标准化建设,增加经费投入。

The research on the overall demand of resources of nationwide early childhood education is based on the difference of the demand of resources with the changes of structure of school-aged population in rural-urban areas. By using CPPS and the population data of 2009, the forecast of the school-aged population of rural-urban early childhood education from 2013 to 2020 has been conducted. The projection results show that, the number of urban school-aged population now is less than rural school-aged population in school-aged population will increase yearly from 2013 to 2020, early childhood education, but the number of urban while, in rural areas, it will be declining. In 2020, the school-aged population of these two areas will be very close. According to the prediction, in order to solve the resource demand problems of rural-urban early childhood education, it is suggested that we should adopt various models of kindergarten running, stablize teachers＇ team, standardize the regulation of the adjustment of school layout, standardize the adjustment of kindergarten, complete the standard construction, and aggrandize the capital invesgation.