基于未确知测度理论的特长隧道施工安全风险评价

Security Risk Evaluation for Super Long Tunnel Construction Based on Uncertainty Measurement Theory

针对特长隧道施工风险评价中常存在诸多不确定性因素的问题,本文提出一种基于未确知测度理论的特长隧道施工风险性评价新方法。根据特长隧道事故的特点及成因,选取支护措施等15项未确知测度函数评价指标,建立了特长隧道施工风险分级预测的未确知测度评价模型;利用信息熵计算各评价指标的权重,依照置信度识别准则进行等级判定,得出特长隧道工程施工风险评价分级预测的评价结果;并应用于某一特长铁路隧道工程实际,成功评定出该隧道综合风险等级为II级。结果表明,该方法不仅能给出特长隧道施工期间的风险等级,并且能够更客观地反映特长隧道施工过程中危险源的情况,为隧道工程施工风险性评价提供了一种新途径。

For various uncertainty problems in the super long tunnel construction risk evaluation, a new risk evaluation method based on the uncertainty measurement theory is proposed. Fifteen uncertainty measurement function evaluation indexes （e.g. the supporting measures） are chosen according to the characteristics and the causes of the safety accidents in the super long tunnel, and an uncertainty measurement evaluation model based on the uncertainty measurement theory is proposed for predicting the construction risk of the super long tunnel. The weight of each index is calculated by using the information entropy, and the risk grade is predicted in accordance with the confidence identify rules. A new super long railway tunnel is taken as an example, the comprehensive risk rating of the super long tunnel is predicated successfully and its risk level is shown to be the grade II. The risk evaluation for the super long tunnel construction not only includes the risk grade of the super long tunnel construction period but also reflects the dangerous sources during the super long tunnel construction.