鄯善县山南灌区坎儿井恢复预测研究

Research on the Recovery Forecasting of Karezes in Shannan Irrigation Area in Shanshan County

以鄯善县山南灌区2010年地下水监测数据为依据,对3种不同节水方案下的灌区农业需水量进行了预测。方案一是维持现状灌溉面积2.13万hm2不变的强化节水方案;方案二是每年减少灌溉面积0.067万hm2至2032年基本农田为0.667万hm2规模;方案三是每年减少灌溉面积0.133万hm2至2021年基本农田为0.667万hm2规模。采取水均衡的方法分别对3种方案进行水资源供需平衡分析和灌区地下水埋深动态变化的预测。结果表明:从最有利于地下水恢复的方案三来说,地下水埋深的恢复过程仍然是缓慢的,且不能在短期内恢复灌区地下水埋深。因此,应采取其他相关的对策如增加地表水的配额、产业发展模式转型等措施,尽快改善山南灌区地下水超采现状,实现山南灌区地下水位的尽快恢复及坎儿井的永续利用。

The main study area is the south of mountain irrigated area of Shanshan County, based on the level of year 2010 data to predict the water demand of the irrigated area under three different water-saving programs. The first program is to strengthen water-saving in the conditions of 2.13 × 104 hm2irrigated area to maintain the status quo; the second program is to decrease the irrigated area from 0. 067 × 104 hm2 each year to basic farm- land area for 0. 667 × 104 hm2 in 2032 ; the third program is to decrease the irrigated area from 0. 133 × 104 hm2 each year to basic farmland area for O. 667 × 104 hm2 in 2021. Taking the method of water balance respectively, the paper analyzed water supply and demand balance and forecasted irrigation groundwater level dynamic changes in all three programs. The results show that： considering the three programs above, the third program is the most conducive to groundwater recovery. But groundwater depth recovery process is slow in the irrigated area. Therefore, we should take other relative such as to increase the quota of surface water and industrial development model transformation and to achieve the recovery of groundwater level and the sustainable utilization of Karez in Shannan irrigated area.