全要素生产率对中国地区经济增长与波动的影响

Influence of Total Factor Productivity on China’s Regional Economic Growth and Fluctuations

本文在重新估算1978～2011年中国30个省区市资本、劳动与实际产出数据的基础上，采用了非参数的Malmquist生产率指数法测算了各省区市各年度全要素生产率水平、各年度资本与劳动要素份额等变量及其变化情况，并测算了改革开放以来中国经济各阶段TFP增长及其子项目对实际经济增长的贡献、TFP增长率与潜在增长率及经济波动的相关性。研究发现，1979～2011年期间，对全要素生产率增长起主要作用的是技术进步。而技术效率的恶化对全要素生产率增长起着抑制作用，技术进步是各地区全要素生产率增长的主要支撑力量，中、西部相对东部地区的技术效率相对东部地区的持续恶化，是导致中、西部与东部的全要素生产率增长差距扩大的主要原因。随着资本对中国经济增长贡献的增大，许多地区的TFP增长率甚至绝对水平下降，特别是纯技术效率恶化，经济增长日益依靠不断扩大的资本投入。TFP增长的波动与GDP的波动高度相关。而TFP增长的长期趋势与资本增长率的长期趋互补，分别与GDP的长期趋势即潜在增长率保持一定程度的相关性。由于2008年以来，许多省份的潜在增长率开始下降，资本对经济增长的推动作用逐渐减弱，只有不断通过制度改革、技术研发等方式提升技术水平。优化资源配置，不断提升TFP增长水平，才能保持经济的长期持续增长。

Based on the re-estimation of capital, labor and real output of China's 30 provincial regions during 1978-2011, this paper calculates levels and changes of total factor productivity and share of capital and labor in output for each provinces in each year using nonparametric Malmquist TFP index, and calculates the contributions of the growth of TFP and its components, the correlations between the growth of TFP and potential output growth, and the correlations between fluctuations of both variables. It finds that, during the data period total factor productivity is mainly driven by technological progress; the aggravation of technical efficiency hampers the growth of TFP; technological progress is the main support of economic growth in each area; and the aggravation of TFP of western and middle areas relative to the east is the main reason of the expansion of growth gap between the east and the two other regions. As the contribution of capital to economic growth became larger, growth rates or even levels of TFP of many regions decreased, and technical efficiency and pure technical efficiency began to aggravate while economic growth depended more heavily on capital investment. It also finds that the fluctuations of TFP growth and GDP growth are highly correlated, and the long trends of TFP growth and capital growth are mutually complementary, both keeping some degrees of correlations with GDP growth rate. Since the potential growth rates of many provinces began to drop down, capital has been playing weaker roles in promoting economic growth. Therefore, long-run sustainable economic growth can be achieved only through improving technology and resource allocation efficiency with institutional reforms and R&D.