县域经济发展失衡预警指标体系设计及预警评判标准界定

Design Warning Indicator System of County Economic Development Imbalance and Defined Early Warning Criteria

改革开放以来,中国县域经济取得了举世瞩目的成就,但各县域之间经济发展差距较大,落后县与先进县的差距有进一步拉大的趋势,县域经济发展存在很大的不平衡性,而发展失衡容易引发地区性社会风险。从经济规模、经济结构、社会民生和资源环境4个方面构建了由23个具体指标构成的县域经济发展失衡预警指标体系,在进行预警指标设计时重点关注了那些具有较强警戒作用的敏感性指标。此外,采用世界通行标准法和国内外文献综述法等多种方法界定了各预警指标的预警评判标准,为县域经济发展失衡程度的评判和预警提供了依据。

Since the reform and opening up, Chinese county economy made remarkable achievements, but the economic development gap was large between each county, and the gaps were further widening between backward counties and advanced counties, county economic development existed a great imbalance, but development imbalance easily triggered a regional social risk. The author built the county economic development imbal- ances early warning indicator system which were constituted by the 23 specific indicators, from four aspects of the economic scale, economic structure, social livelihood, resources and environment. Designing the warning indicators, the author focued on those sensitivity indicators of strong vigilance role. In addition, using ways of the world accepted standard law and the domestic and international literature review, the author defined early warning criteria of the various early warning indicators.This study provided a basis for evaluation and early warning of the county economic development imbal- ances.