区域旅游—经济—环境耦合协调度研究——以辽宁沿海经济带为例

Research on Coupling Coordinative Gegree of Tourism-Economy-Environment——A Case Study of Liaoning Coastal Economic Belt

构建区域旅游—经济—环境耦合协调度指标体系,对辽宁沿海经济带2005—2011年三者耦合协调度演变进行定量分析。在此基础上,应用GM(1,1)模型预测短期内研究区三者协调发展趋势。结果显示,7年内辽宁沿海经济带整体耦合协调度呈波动上升态势,但是大连市和锦州市耦合协调度却不断下降;预测结果表明,未来三年内,除锦州市和大连市外,其他城市耦合协调度都明显好转,逐渐摆脱不协调态势,向协调发展过渡。

Coupled coordination degree index system of regional tourism - economy - environment was build to analyze the evolution of coupled coordination degree quantitatively from 2005 to 2011 in Liaoning Coastal Economic Belt. Meanwhile, coordinated development trend of three subsys- tems was also predicted using the GM （ 1,1 ） model based on the calculation results. The results showed that overall coupling coordination degree ex- perienced an upward trend in the past seven years,yet the index declined continuously in Dalian and Jinzhou .The prediction result revealed that coupling coordination degree would be improved obviously expect that in Dalian and Jinzhou, it would get rid of unharmonious status and transfer to coor- dinate development gradually.