房地产资本税对房地产业及国民经济影响的实证研究

The Empirical Study of Effects of Real Estate Capital Tax Policy on Real Estate Industry and National Economy

本文构建了房地产资本税的可计算一般均衡(CGE)模型,考察了房地产资本税政策对房地产业及国民经济的影响。结论表明,房地产资本税率的提高可以拉动房地产业的发展,而房地产资本税率降低则有利于房地产业的内部结构优化。增加房地产资本税收能够促进与房地产业后向关联较大的原材料工业和金融业、前向关联较大的生产者服务业和消费者服务业的产出增长。房地产资本税率增加还会使得物价上升、政府和居民的收入增长,但税率上升导致要素相对价格的变化使得对资本要素的需求减少。此外,房地产资本税能够减缓房价变动对经济的冲击,并且具有典型的"内在稳定器"作用。

This paper specified the real estate capital tax computable general equilibrium（CGE） model and studied the effects of real estate capital tax policy on the real estate industry and national economy.The results show that upgrading the real estate capital tax rate can promote the development of real estate industry,and the real estate capital rate reduction is helpful for the internal structure optimization of the real estate industry.Increasing the real estate capital tax rate can also promote the output growth of raw material industry and the financial sector that have high backward relationship of real estate industry,and the output growth of producer service industry and consumer services that have high forward correlation with real estate industry.Real estate capital rate increase promotes prices rise and enhances the government and residents′ income growth,but it also leads to changes in elements relative prices and then leads to less demand for capital element.In addition,the real estate capital tax can alleviate the impacts of house prices changes on the economy,thus it owns the typical ＂inner stabilizer＂ effect.