配电网可靠性评估贝叶斯网络区间算法

The Application of Bayesian Network Interval Algorithm in the Reliability Evaluation of the Electric Distribution Network

提出一种基于贝叶斯网络的配电网可靠性评估区间算法。为计及元件可靠性参数的不确定性,引入区间数运算法则,基于贝叶斯网络的双向推理模式,计算负荷点和系统的区间可靠性指标并辨识其薄弱环节。通过RBTS母线2等算例系统的可靠性评估和分析,证实算法的正确性和有效性。

This essay introduces an interval algorithm for the reliability evaluation of the electric distribution network （EDN） based on Bayesian Network. Considering the uncertainty of the reliability parameters of the EDN components, based on the bi-direction reasoning model of the Bayesian Network, the interval algorithm is introduced to calculate the interval reliability indices of the load points and the EDN system as well as identifying the weak links of the system. Through relevant reliability evaluation and analysis of the examples of the RBTS-BUS2 of the EDN, the algorithm is proved valid and effective.