河南省金属切削机床生产能力的智能预测

Intelligent Prediction on Production Capacity of Metal-cutting Machine Tools in Henan Province

金属切削机床生产能力的预测对于了解一个地区机床工业的发展水平和市场供应能力具有重要意义。以2005年至2010年河南省金属切削机床生产能力的统计数据为样本,利用改进的BP神经网络建立了河南省金属切削机床生产能力的预测模型,并对模型的预测能力进行了仿真验证。验证表明该模型的预测相对误差低于0.1%,可以满足预测的需要。对河南省2011年、2012年和2013年的金属切削机床生产能力进行了预测,预测结果表明在未来三年内河南省金属切削机床的生产能力将总体保持稳定,具体表现出"先增加后减少再增加"的波动趋势。

The prediction on production capacity of metal-cutting machine tools is important for understanding the development level of machine tool industry and the supply capacity of market in a region. Historical statistical data of Henan province＇s production capacity of metal-cutting machine tools from 2005 to 2010 were used as samples. Improved BP neural network was used to establish the production capacity prediction model of metal-cutting machine tools in Henan province. A simulated experiment was carried out to veri- fy the model＇s predictive ability. The maximal relative error in all predicted points lowers than 0. 1%; it shows that the prediction model is available. Production capacity data of metal-cutting machine tools in 2011, 2012, and 2013 were predicted. Predicted re- sult shows that the production capacity of metal-cutting machine tools in Henan province in the next three years will generally remain stable, and will show a trend as ＂increase-decrease-increase＂ in detail.