基于ARMA模型的甘肃就业结构变动趋势分析

The Study on Changing Trend of Employment Structure in Gansu

利用甘肃省1983-2010年三次产业就业数据,建立甘肃省三次产业就业人数的ARMA模型,对甘肃省"十二五"时期三次产业就业人数变化趋势进行预测。结果表明:第一产业就业人数呈上升趋势,就业人数比重呈波浪型趋势,第二产业就业人数和所占比重均呈下降趋势,第三产业就业人数和所占比重均呈上升趋势。最后,针对甘肃实际提出甘肃产业就业结构优化的对策建议。

Using the three industries employment number of Gansu Province from 1983 to 2010,the paper sets up ARMA model of industry employment number of Gansu ,and forecasts industry employment number during the 12th Five-Year plan period.The results are as follows.The primary industry employment amount shows an upward trend. The proportion of employment number shows a fluctuation trend.Total employment and the proportion of secondary industry shows downtrend.Total employment and the proportion of tertiary industry shows a an upward trend.Finally,the article puts forward some suggestions to optimize the industry employment structure in Gansu province.