人民币实际有效汇率波动与国际贸易关系的实证分析——基于全国样本的GMM检验

An Empirical Analysis of the Relationship between the Volatility of RMB Real Effective Exchange Rate and International Trade——Based on Nationwide Sample of GMM Test

中国经济高速增长的30年间,外贸所起的作用不可小视。但是,由于中国对主要贸易伙伴国一直以来均保持顺差,并且顺差额逐年加大,造成贸易伙伴国颇有微词,普遍认为人民币汇率被严重低估。研究结果发现,人民币实际有效汇率对我国的出口、进口的作用方向与传统经济理论的结论一致,其中对出口的促进作用大于对进口的阻碍作用,正负抵消后从而导致人民币实际有效汇率对外贸总额产生正向的促进作用。因此,在样本期间内,人民币实际有效汇率的升值对我国的外贸增长长期影响是不利的,必须要在可控性、渐进性的原则下进行汇率制度的改革,并在改革过程中结合国内外的经济发展状况进行合理调整,切不可因为进行汇改而影响国内良好的经济发展环境。

Foreign trade has been playing an important role in China＇s rapid economic growth during the past 30 years. However, due to China＇s huge trade surplus year after year,her major trading partners veiled criticism,and generally believed that the RMB exchange rate was seriously underestimated. In consistent with traditional economy theory,RMB real effective exchange rate promotes exports better than impeding imports. In other words,RMB real effective exchange rate acts positive role in promoting foreign trade when considering the positive and negative offset. Thus, during the sample period, the long-term impact of the appreciation of RMB real effective exchange rate is unfavorable to the foreign trade growth. The exchange rate reform should be conducted in controllable and progressive principles. Simultaneously, reasonable adjustment is also essential in the process of the reform in the combination of the economic development home and abroad. Moreover,it should be clear that the favorable domestic environment of eco- nomic development should not be affected by the exchange rate reform.