引入土地流转因素的新型农村社会养老保险基金预测

On the New Rural Social Endowment Insurance Fund Forecasting

本文以政策外部性关联与协同效应为切入点,通过陕西省西安市新农保试点区县农民问卷调查,对引入土地流转因素的新型农村社会养老保险基金预测进行精算建模和政策仿真研究。结果表明,土地流转因素对新农保参保率、缴费率具有显著影响,基金收支呈现由盈余转向缺口并逐年扩大的趋势,基金和制度存在双重失衡风险。通过关键制度因素的单一及组合调整结果分析对比,提出促进土地流转与新农保制度良性融合与可持续发展的对策建议。

Based on the questionnaire investigation of farmers in the pilots in Xi＇an City of Shaanxi Province, this paper takes policy externality correlation and coordination effect as starting point, and constructs the New Rural Social Endow- ment Insurance Fund forecasting actual model and simulates the fund income and expenditure. The research results show that land circulation factors have an impor- tant effect on participation ratio and contribution rate of New Rural Social Endow- ment Insurance. The fund surplus changes to fund absence, the fund gap is en- larged gradually, and the system and fund would be faced up with unbalance risk. According to the single and combination factors adjustment analysis and compari- son, the paper puts forward some suggestions in order to improve these two sys- tems integration and sustainable development of land circulation and New Rural So- cial Endowment Insurance.