我国个人账户缴费与给付的精算公平性评价

An Actuarial Evaluation between Contribution and Payment in Our Personal Account Plan

缴费与给付的精算公平是我国积累型个人账户的本质要求。本文通过模拟测算个人退休时积累的养老资产规模以及退休后将领取的所有给付的货币价值率,得出参与者在退休时从现行的积累—给付模式中获得的总收益。进一步,将其与模拟的市场化投资所累积的养老资产规模进行比较,从而评价参与者从现行模式中获得的精算公平程度。一个重要的结论是,精算公平性与否取决于未来给付随工资增长的速度,而个人账户资产收益率与工资增长率之间的较大差距将会严重侵蚀个人账户的目标替代率。

The actuarial fairness between accumulation and payment is the in- trinsical requirement of China＇s personal account. The paper calculates the cash value the participants will receive when they retire, through simulating the assets grown by one-year deposit rate of bank, multiplied by the money＇s worth rate of payment typical retirees obtained in retirement. Further, the cash value is com- pared with the simulated pension assets accumulated by the yield of national social security fund which has been engaged in market investment in the past decade. An important conclusion is that actuarial fairness of our mode depends on the further growth rate along with the wage growth rate and the large gap between the yield in current schema and the wage growth rate will immensely erode the targeted replace- ment rate of our personal accounts.