奥肯定律在中国真的失效了吗?

Is Okun's Law Really Invalid in China?

基于对简单奥肯定律的二元分解,对中国的潜在产出增长率和自然失业率进行测算。结果表明,基于二元结构的奥肯定律,中国城镇登记失业率每增加1%,将使得GDP下降1.98个百分点,同时我国过去30年的GDP潜在增长率约为10%,平均自然失业率约为3.2%。研究发现,长期来看奥肯定律在中国仍然成立,只是简单奥肯定律的奥肯系数约为-3.79,高估了登记失业率对GDP增长率的影响,需要考虑中国的二元经济结构而对其进行修正。

This paper is based on the dual structural decomposition of the simple Okun's Law to estimate the China's potential GDP growth rate and the natural rate of unemployment.The results show that,based on the dual structure of the Okun's law,when China's registered urban unemployment rate increased by 1%,the GDP decline about 1.98%.China's potential GDP growth rate and natural rate of unemployment over the past three decades is about 10%and 3.2%.We find that in the long run,Okun's Law is still valid in China,but the coefficient of the simple Okun's Law is about —3.79.