经济增长与产业结构关系的实证分析——基于宜昌市1990—2011年时间序列数据

Empirical Analysis of the Relationship between Economic Growth and Industrial Structure——Based on the Time Series Data of Yichang City, 1990-2011

本文基于1990—2011年宜昌市国民经济发展数据,从宜昌市三大产业出发去探索宜昌市经济增长的动力支撑。运用灰色关联分析得出宜昌市三大产业与地区生产总值的关联度。研究结果表明,宜昌市的经济基本上保持着一种持续稳定的增长。同时,经济增长过多的依靠第二产业带动,第三产业的发展速度表现出一种疲缓。

This paper analyzes the economic development dynamism of Yichang City from its three main in- dustries, based on the 1990-2011 national economic development data of Yichang City. The use of gray related analysis derived the association of Yichang City, the degrees between the three major industries and GDP are re- spectively 0.7494, 0.8696, 0.7979 by using grey relational analysis. According to the result, it is the secondary industry that has the maximal relevance with the GDP of Yichang City. Then establish the function of the impact of industrial structure on economic growth, through econometric analysis to verify the correlation between eco- nomic growth and industrial structure of Yichang City, and calculate three main industries＇ contribution to eco- nomic growth were respectively： 23.95%, 46.50%, 30.98%. It＇s obvious that the secondary industry has the largest contribution to economic growth, and it coincides with the result of relational analysis. The results of the study show that, the economy of Yichang City basically maintains a steady growth, at the same time, economic growth is relying too heavily on the secondary industry, the development pace of the tertiary industry is slow.