风险评估模型在配电系统电压骤降中的应用

Evaluation Method of Voltage Sag Using a Risk Assessment Model in Power Distribution Systems

用采取整体概括的方法来处理历史数据，关于电源发生电压骤降事件对客户的影响进行分析，设定反映系统变化的曲线，并进一步建立模糊模型，获得系统运行年度指标的结果。整个方法是基于蒙特卡罗时间序列算法的，模拟过程分为数据分析和概率推算两个部分。通过案例分析，证明此法可以有效的应用到实际系统中，其运算结果可以作为评估配电系统可靠性指标的有效依据。

Takeing into account the impact of voltage sags on customers using a representative power acceptability curve and a fuzzy model. The final result of the evaluation model yields on a yearly basis the magnitude of customers＇ risk caused by voltage sags. The evaluation methodology is divided into the analytic and probabilistic method. The time sequential Monte Carlo simulation is used as probabilistic method. The proposed method evaluate the actual impact of voltage sags was verified and can be effectively applied to the real system using the historical reliability data as the conventional reliability indices in power distribution systems.