基于CLUE-S模型的西部干旱区土地利用变化情景模拟

Simulation of land use change in western arid region under different scenarios based on the CLUE-S model

为探讨西部干旱区城市化进程中土地利用时空演变规律,以库尔勒市城市扩展区为研究对象,依据1998、2005年和2010年3期遥感影像及相关社会经济数据,分析研究区快速城市化进程中的土地利用结构变化,并以2010年土地利用格局为基础,采用CLUE-S模型分别模拟了自然增长、水资源约束和生态保护情景下研究区2020年的土地利用格局。研究结果表明:各情景下,耕地、建设用地和园林地的面积都不断增加,未利用地面积持续减少。在水资源约束情景下,耕地和水域受到保护,建设用地扩展速度被抑制;在生态保护情景下,通过对园林地、水域和荒草地等生态用地的保护,限制城镇盲目扩张,对保护研究区生态环境有重要意义。

In order to explore the temporal and spatial characteristics of land use change in western arid city, this paper analyzed the change of land use pattern in Korla city according to the data of remote sensing images in 1998, 2005 and 2010 and related social economic data. At the same time, the land use pattern in 2020 was simulated by CLUE-S model under three different scenarios including natural growth, water restriction, and ecological protection based on the land use pattern in 2010. The results showed that the area for farming, construction land and garden land would increase ceaselessly, but unutilized land continued to declining. Under water restriction scenario, the expansion of construction land would be restricted due to the preservation of farmland and water resource. The ecological environment can be protected by preservation of ecological land and restriction of construction land under ecological protection scenario.