垂直专业化与经济周期协动性研究——基于中国、日本、美国和EU7国的实证分析

Research on Interactive Relation between Vertical Specialization and Economic Cycle——Empirical Analysis Based on China,Japan,the United States and EU7

本文选取中国、日本、美国和EU7(包括比利时、德国、法国、意大利、荷兰、西班牙、英国)10个国家为样本,通过面板分析实证考察了垂直专业化和经济周期协动性之间的关系。实证结果表明:垂直专业化(VS)深化了国家间经济周期协动性,且两者之间的正相关关系较为显著;产业内贸易(IIT)与经济周期协动性正相关;产业结构相似度(IS)、双边直接投资强度(FDI)和双边贸易强度(TI)与经济周期协动性负相关。

This paper uses panel analysis to make empirical study of the interactive relation between vertical specialization and economic cycle by choosing ten countries as samples such as China, Japan, the United States, and EU7 including Belgium, Ger- many, France, Italy, Netherlands, Spain and the United Kingdom, and the empirical results show that vertical specialization deepens the interactive relation of economic cycle between the countries while the positive relation between the two is significant, and that intra-industry trade is positively related to economic cycle coordination while industrial structural similarity, mutual for- eign direct investment intensity and mutual trade intensity are negatively related to economic cycle coordination.