广东省海平面变化的过去和未来

The Past and Future of Sea Level Variations in Guangdong Province

根据截止至2012年的文献、验潮站和卫星观测海平面资料,采用相关分析和对比方法,介绍近8 000年来广东海平面变化特点并对未来趋势做出预估,结果发现:1)7 500年来广东的海平面存在6个相对高海平面时期,大体呈现千年尺度的波动周期,相对海平面比现在高约2.8～1.3 m;2)中全新世高温期存在百年尺度的海平面波动,波动幅度为20～40 cm;3)预估21世纪末的海平面比2000年上升38～45 cm。

Based on documentations and sea- level data from tide gauge stations and satellites up to 2012 and with the methods of correlation and comparison, this work introduces the characteristics of sea level variations over the past 8 000 years and estimates their trends in the future. The results are shown as follows ： 1 ） The sea level of Guangdong were relatively high over the past 7 500 years, or fluctuating at a millennium scale, and the relative sea level was about 2. 8 to 1.3 m higher than that of the present time; 2） The sea level varied at a centenary scale with a fluctuating amplitude between 20 and 40 cm during the high - temperature time of the Mid - Holocene ; 3 ） It is projected that the sea level will rise by 38 to 45 cm at the end of the 21st century as compared to that of 2000.