我国经济中长期增长潜力和经济周期研究

Study of China's Mid-and Long-term EconomicGrowth Potential and Economic Cycle

Based on the analyses of domestic and external situation in several years in the future,thispaper will make use of theproduction function model, econometric model, seasonal cycle model, ananalysis of the three times of coordinated development of industrial structure, and an analysis of thefact that the three major demands have driven chian’s econmic growth, to calculate Chian’s economic growth potential and real growth rate in the period of“the 15th Five- year Plan"and between2006 and 2015, and to forecast the economic trend.The calculation and prediction demonstratethat,in the period lf " 15th five-year-plan,the potential GDP growth rate will be arornd 9%,real GDP growth rate, about 7.5%;in 2006 to 2015,the potential GDP growth rate,about 8.5%,thereal GDP growth rate, 7%.Viewed either from the factors of supply and demand,or from the contribution by technological advancement to economic growth, Chian’s econmy will be able to reach the mid-sped growth of 7% or plus in 2001 to 2015.