基于证据理论的政府低碳政策绩效评价方法探析

Evaluation on the Performance of Government＇s low-carbon policy Based on Evidence Theory

研究了基于证据理论对省级区域政府低碳政策实施的效果进行评价的方法。建立了产业层面、能源消费、碳排放、公众低碳意识和环境保护等5个一级指标13个二级指标的政策实施效果指标体系；提出了基于灰色相似性关联度的平均融合规则，解决了由于证据的相关性导致的证据合成的过估计问题；文后运用2010年中国统计年鉴的相关数据，对我国5个省级区域进行了综合评价。

This paper study on the method of evaluation on the performance of government＇s low-carbon policy based on evidence theory. Five first class indexes are built from the industrial level, energy use, carbon emission , public awareness of low-carbon and environmental protection five aspects. This paper built the average fusion rule based on the grey-relational analysis to solves the problem caused by the relativity between evidences. Then, the relevant data of 2010 of China Statistical Yearbook is used in this paper to study our city s ＇ low-carbon effects of policies.